Russia Holds the Aces in Standoff Over Ukraine
• Fear is growing in the US and Europe that Russian troops will invade Ukraine early next year.
• Russia wants the West to halt any eastward expansion of Nato and views US military support for Ukraine as a direct threat to its own regional interests.
• US fears of another military engagement coupled with Europe’s dependence on Russian gas supplies suggest that the West may blink first.
Russia has thrown down the gauntlet to the West by stationing over 175,000 troops on its border with Ukraine, in what Washington perceives as a move towards a possible invasion in early 2022. The Kremlin has kept its intentions vague, brushing off threats from the US and EU to ratchet up sanctions if any invasion goes ahead, and railing against what it perceives as Western — and especially Nato — interference in its backyard. While some view this as a less serious version of the Cuban Missile Crisis in which both sides will eventually back down, a Russian invasion of Ukraine cannot be ruled out. There is already a precedent — Russia’s invasion of pro-Western Georgia in 2008 — and analysts warn against the notion that Russia is bluffing this time around. Western diplomats are spooked by Moscow’s increasingly bellicose language and muscle-flexing, such as the Russian navy stalking a French frigate entering the Black Sea.
A Russian invasion of Ukraine would invite punitive US sanctions that, among other things, could deny Russian companies access to the Swift financial system and cut off their access to Western credit. But Russia is in a much stronger position to withstand such measures than it was when sanctions targeting President Vladimir Putin and his cronies were imposed in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea. Its foreign currency and gold reserves have climbed to more than $622 billion, while more of its trade — including sales of oil, gas and weapons — is being done with Asia, especially China and India.
Setting the Record Straight
At the heart of these simmering tensions is Russia’s fear of the West, in the form of Nato, pushing up against its western borders and trying to move Ukraine into its sphere of influence. This has been a constant bugbear for Moscow since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, and Putin now wants the matter settled once and for all — in his favor.
If there were any doubts around Putin’s position, they were dispelled in a long article published on the Kremlin website in July, in which he referred to the natural unity, stretching back centuries and based on a common language and culture, between Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians. He described them as “all descendants of Ancient Rus, which was the largest state in Europe” and pointed out that Ukraine derived its name from the old Russian word “okraina,” which means periphery. In a thinly veiled swipe at the US, he said there were deliberate attempts to undo these bonds among fellow Slavs.
While Putin’s historical treatise skirts over the damage that Russia inflicted on Ukraine in the Soviet era, especially under Stalin, it shows why any talk of Ukrainian membership of Nato is such a highly charged issue for Moscow. Just two months after the paper appeared, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy met in the White House with US President Joe Biden and sought firm assurances on Nato membership that he did not get. But the fact that he met with Biden at all, and also visited the Pentagon to discuss increased military assistance for Ukraine, was enough to fuel Putin’s ire. While Biden tiptoed around Ukraine’s Nato membership, he voiced his support for its “Euro-Atlantic aspirations” and territorial integrity.
Upping the Ante
As the military pressure on Ukraine intensifies, what Putin wants is clear: A cast-iron assurance from Nato that it will not embrace Ukraine — or any other former Soviet states that aren’t already in the alliance — as a member. He has always viewed Nato as a US-controlled instrument designed to weaken Russia’s influence, and believes now is the chance to wrest concessions from Washington. But, so far, Biden has stood firm and, during a video call with Putin earlier this month, refused to abandon the idea of Ukraine joining the alliance sometime in the future.
After that call, however, Biden did say he would shortly announce high-level talks between the US, key Nato allies and Russia to discuss "Russia’s concerns relative to Nato writ large” and explore “whether or not we can work out any accommodation." For Putin, seeking "serious long-term guarantees" for Russian security, that points to something of a win.
The US may also try to ease tensions by reducing military assistance to Ukraine and distancing itself from the Zelenskiy government. Washington knows that Russia would triumph in a military incursion into eastern Ukraine, despite a strengthening of the Ukrainian army in recent years. And, as happened when Russian troops overran Georgia and encountered little resistance, the US will not risk getting involved militarily. Russia has meanwhile ratcheted up the pressure by warning of new nuclear arms race with the US, brushed aside by Washington as a provocation.
Europe’s Achilles' Heel
Like the US, the EU has threatened Russia with punitive new sanctions if it attacked Ukraine, with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, warning of "unprecedented measures" that would have "serious consequences" for Russia. On Monday, Brussels announced new sanctions targeting the Russian mercenary force, the Wagner Group. As it has done in the past, Russia has tried to sow divisions within the EU — and Nato — to prevent it from adopting a united front vis-à-vis Ukraine.
The EU, especially Germany, fears the economic impact a further escalation could have on the bloc's economy. Its Achilles' heel is its members' reliance on Russian gas supplies, at a time of sky-high prices. Russian state-backed giant Gazprom has denied any suggestion that it has engineered the price spike by withholding deliveries at the Kremlin's behest. But there remains a suspicion in EU capitals that Russia is targeting the EU’s area of greatest vulnerability and could cause prices to spiral for the rest of the winter.
There are signs, however, that Germany is working to de-escalate the situation. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Oleksii Reznikov, told the Financial Times that Berlin had vetoed an agreement for Ukraine to buy defensive military equipment via Nato’s procurement agency.
"The Europeans are thinking long and hard about Ukraine," a veteran European diplomat says. "In the end, I don't think they will want to fight Russia over it." Russia is likely thinking long and hard, too. If Russian troops were to invade, it is likely they would stay in the east, where Russia already has de facto control, rather than risk major clashes further west. But doing so would still invite more Western sanctions, imposing more pain for little real gain.